Many crypto investors have noticed a recurring trend: Bitcoin often performs poorly in August. Analysts and market commentators have even labeled this seasonal pattern the “Bitcoin August Curse.” Understanding where this idea comes from and what drives it can help investors avoid panic and make smarter decisions during periods of market weakness.
What Is the Bitcoin August Curse
The August Curse refers to a historical tendency for Bitcoin prices to drop or stagnate during the month of August. Over the last decade, Bitcoin has experienced negative returns in most Augusts. Data shows that in about 70 to 80 percent of these years, Bitcoin posted losses ranging from 5 to 20 percent.
There have been exceptions. In 2017 and 2021, both strong bull market years following Bitcoin’s halving events, August delivered double‑digit gains. However, these outliers have not changed the overall perception that August is usually a challenging month for Bitcoin.
Why Bitcoin Often Struggles in August
Several factors contribute to this seasonal weakness:
1. Lower Trading Activity
August is part of the summer vacation period in major financial markets. This leads to lower trading volumes and less liquidity. When fewer buyers and sellers are active, price swings become more pronounced, often tilting to the downside.
2. Profit‑Taking After Rallies
Bitcoin frequently performs well in the first half of the year. By August, many institutional and retail investors lock in profits, leading to temporary sell‑offs and market consolidation.
3. Market Volatility and Macro Events
August is historically more volatile for global financial markets. Stock market turbulence, changes in economic policy, or unexpected geopolitical events can spill over into crypto, pushing prices lower. Bitcoin’s correlation with riskier assets, like technology stocks, amplifies this effect.
The 2025 Outlook: Will History Repeat Itself
In 2025, Bitcoin entered August after a strong July rally. Early trading showed slight weakness, echoing past seasonal patterns. Analysts have highlighted potential price dips toward 105,000 to 110,000 dollars, and some forecasts even suggest a deeper correction toward 90,000 dollars.
Notably, this year also follows a Bitcoin halving event. In past cycles, post‑halving years have sometimes defied seasonal weakness, as seen in 2017 and 2021. With increased institutional adoption and long‑term bullish momentum, there is a chance that August 2025 could break the traditional pattern.
Robert Kiyosaki and the August Curse Narrative
Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, has helped popularize the idea of an August Curse for Bitcoin. He believes that August could bring a notable price drop but sees it as an opportunity rather than a threat.
Kiyosaki has stated that if Bitcoin falls below 90,000 dollars, he plans to significantly increase his holdings. He views these seasonal dips as temporary and believes they often set the stage for future price growth as broader economic instability drives demand for Bitcoin.
What This Means for Crypto Investors
● For beginners and experienced investors alike, understanding seasonality is important. Here are a few takeaways:
● August has historically been a weaker month for Bitcoin, so short‑term price drops are not unusual.
● Seasonal weakness does not signal the end of long‑term upward trends. Many past declines were followed by strong recoveries.
● Periods of lower prices can present buying opportunities for long‑term investors who believe in Bitcoin’s future.
● It is essential to combine seasonal data with on‑chain metrics, market sentiment, and technical analysis before making trading decisions.
Final Thoughts
The Bitcoin August Curse is less about superstition and more about recurring market behavior shaped by lower liquidity, profit‑taking, and broader financial volatility. While 2025 may follow historical patterns, post‑halving momentum and growing institutional support could create a different outcome this time.
For most investors, the best approach is to stay informed, avoid emotional trading during seasonal dips, and focus on long‑term fundamentals rather than short‑term fluctuations.
